Strong Inference, Science (1964)

Strong Inference. Certain systematic methods of scientific thinking may produce much more rapid progress than others.

Strong inference consists of applying the following steps to every problem in science, formally and explicitly and regularly:

1. Devising alternative hypotheses


2. Devising a crucial experiment (or several of them), with alternative possible outcomes, each of which will, as nearly as possible, exclude one or more of the hypotheses


3. Carrying out the experiment so as to get a clean result

Rinse and repeat to form a "conditional inductive tree" or decision tree. Write the tree out.

Or, as the philospher Karl Popper says today, there is no such thing as proof in science -- because some later alternative explanation may be as good or better -- so that science advances only by disproofs. There is no point in making hypotheses that are not falsifiable, because such hypotheses do not say anything: "it must be possible for an empirical scientific system to be refuted by experience".

Form multiple working hypotheses, so as not to get too emotionally attached to any particular one.

BCA v Singh The Story So Far 3 June 2009

I didn't realise Simon Singh was being sued for libel by the British Chiropractic Association until I read Tony's recent post.

Simon's account of the situation is here. It would be nice to read his original article that the BCA is taking action over, if someone can find it.

Patent Lens

Around the time I was experiencing the patent system firsthand, I coincidentally had lunch with Richard Jefferson of Cambia. Cambia is a not-for-profit organisation that is moving some of their operations from Canberra up to Brisbane to collaborate with QUT.

Richard was interviewed on ABC Catalyst where he talks about:

• applying open source s/w development ideas to life sciences


• more efficient social change through scientific collaboration and transparency


• the BIOS initiative that provides tools for genetic scientists (at no financial cost) with the aim to help local people solve their own problems rather than just relying on aid

One of the things Cambia does is the Patent Lens, a free patent search engine. From their site:

We created the Patent Lens to create transparency in the patent system, and to serve the public worldwide as a platform resource to explore, understand and improve its impact on society.

The effects of the patent system as it works now may not match the original intent to benefit society.

The patent system was created to advance societal benefit by encouraging public disclosure of inventions and clear definition of each invention, in exchange for a strictly limited monopoly. The intent is that the invention may be used wherever and whenever the patent monopoly is not in force.

The trouble is that unless information is readily available about whose patents are in force over what technology where, the system doesn't work well.

People may unwittingly infringe patents they don't know about, avoid areas of innovation in which they are entitled to be creative, or make poor investments based on incomplete information about which rights are granted and who holds these rights.

The Patent Lens informatics tools can assist the user to determine the boundaries of intellectual property constraints on deliverable innovations, and usable building blocks for future innovations.

Bubble Rings (Toroidal Vortices)

Last night on the ABC there was a show called Catalyst that had a story on bubble rings, or toroidal vortices. A toroidal vortex occurs when a fluid flows back in on itself to form a donut shape, like the ring around a mushroom cloud. You can see dolphins making and then playing with them in the video located here.